Risk Perception, The Psychometric Paradigm, and how media can affect us 

What is risk perception: 

In the 1970s and 1980s, researchers Paul Slovic, Baruch Fischhoff, and Sarah Lichtenstein conducted several studies on the differences between expert and laypeople’s perceptions of risk. The at that time new ideas concluded that people experience risk subjectively, influenced by personal preferences, knowledge, and life experiences. This contrasts with the objective perception of risk used by experts, which is based on scientific data and cost-benefit analysis to make a qualified risk assessment. While experts gather evidence and conduct systematic evaluations, most people rely on their intuitive judgments, often referred to as "risk perceptions." These perceptions are typically shaped by media coverage and limited personal interaction with the risks themselves. 

The Psychometric Paradigm: 

This paradigm seeks to explain why there are differences between expert and laypeople's perceptions of risk. In his studies, Slovic found a connection between individuals perceived risk and their knowledge about it. He identified two key factors: dread risk (Factor 1) and unknown risk (Factor 2). The more a risk evokes fear (dread) and the less familiar or understood it is (unknown), the more likely people are to perceive it as highly dangerous. 

An example of this is the fear of flying. Some people perceive air travel as more dangerous than driving, even though statistically, plane crashes are far less common than car accidents. 

Factor 1 is effective by the: Dread, uncontrollable, involuntary, catastrophic, and fatality.  

Factor 2 is effective by the: Observable, unknow, effect delayed, and new risk. 

This Paradigm focuses largely on the individual phycology of a person as the dominate factor of our risk perception. Other factor that can influence our perception of risk could be social, cultural, and institutional. A theory that focuses more on these factors would be Mary Douglas cultural theory of risk.  

How media effect our risk perception:  

Other theories that focus on risk perception try to explain what can influence factors like those from above. In a paper, Media risk communication – what was said by whom and how was it interpreted (McCarthy, Brennan, Boer, & Ritson, 2008), the authors explore how media plays a key role in shaping our perception of risk. People often rely heavily on the media—both directly and indirectly—for information about various risks. The paper identifies six media-related factors, listed below, that influence how laypeople perceive risk. 

  1. -  Amount of media coverage 
  1. - Frames used for presenting risks 
  1. - Valence and tone of media coverage 
  1. - Types and trustworthiness of risk information sources 
  1. - Media message formats 
  1. - Types of media 

Our perception of risk is influenced by many different factors, such as our knowledge of the risk, the level of fear it evokes, how it is portrayed in the media, and more. Recognizing that risk perception is subjective not only helps us understand why others may view risks differently, but it also offers insight into our own potential biases. 

Source: 

Breck, T. (2001). Dialog om det usikre: nye veje i risikokommunikation. Akademisk Forlag. 

Paek, H.-J., & Hove, T. (2017). Risk Perceptions and Risk Characteristics. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Communication. 

Slovic, P. (2016, August). (PDF) The perception of risk. ResearchGate. 

About the Author

Valdemar Kragh Dan

VD@rocconsult.eu

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